Confidence Intervals Explained
What a 95% CI Means
Your click-through rate is 10% (95% CI: 8% - 12%)
Wrong interpretation: "There's a 95% chance the true value is between 8-12%"
Right interpretation: "If I repeated this measurement 100 times, 95 of those intervals would contain the true value"
Practical Use
Wide intervals = high uncertainty = need more data
Narrow intervals = high precision = confident estimate
Overlapping CIs
If two confidence intervals overlap, the difference might not be statistically significant. But you need a proper test to be sure.
Why They're Better Than P-Values
- ✅ Show effect size (not just significance)
- ✅ Display uncertainty visually
- ✅ Help with practical decisions
- ✅ Don't rely on arbitrary thresholds
Best practice: Always report CIs alongside point estimates. They tell you both the estimate AND how much you should trust it.
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