What-If Analysis Tools in Excel
What-If Analysis tools help you explore different scenarios and outcomes. Excel offers three powerful tools: Scenario Manager, Goal Seek, and Data Tables for comprehensive scenario planning.
Scenario Manager
Creating Scenarios
Use Case: Budget planning with 3 scenarios
Setup:
Cell B1: Revenue
Cell B2: Costs
Cell B3: =B1-B2 // Profit
Create Scenarios:
1. Data → What-If Analysis → Scenario Manager
2. Add: "Best Case"
Changing cells: B1, B2
Values: Revenue=500000, Costs=300000
3. Add: "Likely Case"
Values: Revenue=400000, Costs=320000
4. Add: "Worst Case"
Values: Revenue=350000, Costs=340000
Switch scenarios with one click to see different outcomes!
Scenario Summary Report
Scenario Manager → Summary
Creates table comparing all scenarios:
Best Likely Worst
Revenue 500000 400000 350000
Costs 300000 320000 340000
Profit 200000 80000 10000
Perfect for presentations!
Goal Seek
Reverse Engineering Results
Question: "What sales do I need for $100k profit?"
Setup:
Cell B1: Sales (unknown)
Cell B2: Cost Ratio = 60%
Cell B3: Fixed Costs = 20000
Cell B4: =B1*(1-B2)-B3 // Profit
Goal Seek:
Set cell: B4 (profit)
To value: 100000
By changing: B1 (sales)
Result: Need $300,000 in sales
Data Tables
One-Variable Analysis
Show profit at different price points:
Setup:
Base price: $50
Profit formula in B5
Column A: Test prices (40, 45, 50, 55, 60)
Cell B4: =B5 (reference profit formula)
Data Table:
Select A4:B9
Data → What-If Analysis → Data Table
Column input: B1 (price cell)
Shows profit for each price automatically
Two-Variable Analysis
Test price AND volume combinations:
Rows: Different volumes (1000, 1500, 2000)
Columns: Different prices ($40, $50, $60)
Shows profit matrix for all combinations
Practical Example: Investment Analysis
Using All Three Tools
Investment Decision Model:
Inputs:
- Initial Investment: $100,000
- Annual Return: 8%
- Years: 20
- Annual Contribution: $5,000
Scenario Manager:
- Aggressive: 10% return, $10k/year
- Moderate: 8% return, $5k/year
- Conservative: 5% return, $2.5k/year
Goal Seek:
"What annual contribution needed for $1M target?"
Data Table:
Matrix of returns (5-12%) vs years (10-30)
See future value for all combinations
Comparing the Tools
| Tool | Best For | Variables |
|---|---|---|
| Scenario Manager | Named scenarios, multiple inputs | Many |
| Goal Seek | Reverse engineering, targets | 1 input |
| Data Tables | Sensitivity analysis, ranges | 1-2 inputs |
Real-World Applications
Sales Forecasting
Scenarios:
- Optimistic: +20% growth
- Expected: +10% growth
- Pessimistic: +5% growth
Data Table: Growth rate vs marketing spend
Goal Seek: Marketing needed for specific target
Loan Analysis
Scenario Manager: Different down payments
Data Table: Interest rates vs loan terms
Goal Seek: Down payment for target monthly payment
Break-Even Analysis
Scenarios: Different cost structures
Data Table: Price vs volume to profitability
Goal Seek: Units needed to break even
Best Practices
- Use Scenario Manager for pre-defined scenarios you'll revisit
- Use Goal Seek for quick "what input gives this output?" questions
- Use Data Tables for comprehensive sensitivity analysis
- Document assumptions clearly for each scenario
- Create summary reports for stakeholder presentations
Accessing What-If Analysis
Data tab → Forecast group → What-If Analysis
Three options:
- Scenario Manager
- Goal Seek
- Data Table
Keyboard shortcut: Alt + A + W
Pro Tip: Combine all three tools for comprehensive scenario planning. Use Scenario Manager to save assumptions, Data Tables to explore ranges, and Goal Seek to find specific targets. Always test extreme scenarios!
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